California's top exports to China fell by 64% in 2025

California agricultural exports to China saw a 64% decline last year, with the top 13 commodities in total falling from an average of $1.55 billion to $554 million, according to new research published by the University of California Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics. 

The findings by agricultural economists Colin Carter, Sandro Steinbach and Yasin Yildirim illustrate how quickly changes in trade policy can impact market access critical to the success of some agricultural sectors, the university said in a statement. 

After joining the World Trade Organization in 2001, China became one of California agriculture’s fastest-growing foreign markets, with exports of key commodities such as almonds, pistachios, dairy products and cotton to the Asian nation expanding over the subsequent two decades. 

That trajectory changed in 2018 and 2019 with the first U.S.-China trade war. Then, in 2025, while California farmers were still recovering from the effects of that trade conflict, the U.S. imposed tariffs on Chinese imports under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. China responded with retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods, including many California-grown farm products.

The authors found some of the largest losses caused by the recent trade war occurred in California’s tree nut industry. The value of annual pistachio exports to China declined from 2024 to 2025 by about $478 million, while almond exports fell by roughly $228 million. 

Export volumes dropped just as significantly: Almond shipments to China fell about 77%, while pistachio shipments declined roughly 84%. 

The researchers noted the impacts to these crops—and many others that saw export values decrease by 30% to 80% from their previous averages—reflect how quickly tariffs shift global demand toward competing suppliers, which is called trade diversion.

They also said that when trade barriers suddenly close a major export market, the effects extend throughout the agricultural economy. 

The researchers found that California counties with large agricultural sectors experienced some of the biggest estimated annual export losses, including losses of roughly $246 million in Fresno County and $238 million in Kern County. 

The authors noted that these economic impacts can affect not only farmers but also the processors, trucking companies, warehouses and port facilities that support agricultural exports.

“Long-term trade relationships are fragile,” said Steinbach, professor of agribusiness and applied economics at North Dakota State University. “Trade policy shifts can easily destroy more than they protect.”

For farmers, the consequences of the current trade barriers could have immediate and long-lasting effects. 

In the short term, reduced exports can put downward pressure on prices and limit marketing opportunities for crops that rely heavily on global demand, the authors said. Over time, trade disruptions allow competing exporters to strengthen relationships with international buyers, they said, making it harder for California producers to regain lost market share, even if tariffs are later reduced.

Carter, professor emeritus in the Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics at UC Davis, emphasized that even the temporary exclusion from markets during the first trade war continues to harm farmers today.

“Rebuilding lost trust and market share will take years, if not decades, and would likely require hundreds of millions of dollars in market development efforts,” he added.

The researchers noted that government relief payments have failed to match the scale or distribution of the damage caused by trade conflicts during the past several years.

During the first trade war, the Market Facilitation Program disbursed $23 billion to U.S. farmers, but California received less than 2% of that amount. The 2025 Farmer Bridge Assistance package promises $12 billion, but the program prioritizes row crops in the Midwest over specialty crops that are primarily grown in California and will receive $1 billion to be shared with sugar producers. 

Producers of almonds, citrus, grapes and dairy are mostly excluded, deepening regional disparities and leaving California growers economically vulnerable to trade policy uncertainty. 

“California Farm Bureau representatives have repeatedly pointed out that the structure of federal aid programs, often tied to acreage planted in specific commodity categories, excludes the state’s most valuable exports,” the authors said in the research paper, which is titled “2025 U.S.-China Trade Conflict Harms California Agriculture.”